Lux Trading Firm Risk of Ruin Calculator
Career Trader Program math. Calculate the survival odds of your strategy against Lux Trading Firm's 5% drawdown rule before paying the evaluation fee.
Pass your evaluation. Protect your funded account.
Free classic calculator below. For 10,000-path Quick Test against Lux Trading Firm's exact drawdown rule, with the recommended risk level to maximize pass probability, open the app.
Public rules only. Educational, not affiliated with any prop firm. Rules change: verify with your firm before trading.
Your strategy vs Lux Trading Firm's rules
Lux Trading Firm offers 3 sizes from $10,000 to $100,000
Survival grade
B
Ruin probability
7.8%
Losers to bust
5
Your strategy has a positive edge of 25.0% per trade. Survival odds look strong, but Monte Carlo simulation against real market data will give you a more realistic picture.
About Lux Trading Firm's rules
Lux Trading Firm (LTF) operates the Career Trader Program, a long-form assessment that scales account size with sustained performance. Tighter monthly loss caps differentiate it from quick-eval firms.
Key risk rule
5% monthly loss cap, no daily limit. The longer time horizon rewards conservative position sizing over aggressive evaluation tactics.
| Account | Size | Max DD | Profit Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| $10K Career Trader | $10,000 | 5% | 5% |
| $50K Career Trader | $50,000 | 5% | 5% |
| $100K Career Trader | $100,000 | 5% | 5% |
Rules summarized from publicly published information as of 2026-04-17. Always verify current terms directly with Lux Trading Firm.
Why most Lux Trading Firm traders fail
The 5% drawdown ceiling looks generous in isolation. The math says otherwise. At 2% risk per trade, you bust after just 2 consecutive losers. With a 50% win rate, that sequence happens roughly once every 4 trades — and most evaluations require enough activity that you'll see it.
Lux Trading Firm's static drawdown is more forgiving than trailing rules, but the daily loss limit is the silent killer. Most evaluation failures happen on a single bad day, not from accumulated drawdown.
The fix is structural, not tactical. Reducing risk per trade from 2% to 1% cuts your expected ruin probability by roughly 75%. Reducing it to 0.5% effectively eliminates rule-based failure for most positive-edge strategies.
Run real Monte Carlo simulation
This calculator uses the classical risk of ruin formula. For 10,000-path Monte Carlo Quick Test against real market volatility, with Lux Trading Firm's drawdown rule applied and the recommended risk level to maximize pass probability, use the iOS app.