Enter your strategy parameters. Get your survival grade in 10 seconds.
Your next 100 trades start soon. Do you know the risk?
Full Monte Carlo engine with P5, P50, and P95 percentile outcomes across thousands of randomized trade sequences.
Set custom ruin thresholds matching your prop firm rules or personal limits. See exact breach probability.
Test your strategy parameters across different market regimes with real ticker volatility data.
Risk of ruin measures the probability that a trading strategy will eventually lose enough capital to make continued trading impossible. It depends on three primary factors: win rate, reward-to-risk ratio, and the percentage of capital risked per trade.
Even strategies with positive expected returns can experience long losing streaks that lead to large drawdowns or account ruin if risk per trade is too high.
Many trading tools assume a single projected path of returns. In reality, markets produce thousands of possible outcomes. Losing streaks, volatility shifts, and changing win rates can dramatically increase the probability of ruin.
Understanding the distribution of outcomes is critical to long-term survival.
This calculator estimates the probability that a trading strategy will lose a large portion of its capital based on statistical trade outcomes. By modeling win rate, reward-to-risk ratio, and risk per trade, traders can estimate the likelihood of catastrophic drawdowns over time.
Successful traders prioritize capital preservation. Reducing risk per trade, maintaining favorable reward-to-risk ratios, and understanding statistical drawdowns are essential for long-term performance.
Before focusing on profits, traders must ensure their strategy can survive hundreds or thousands of trades.
This is a simplified estimate.
One run doesn't show the risk.
The same strategy can succeed… or fail completely… depending on the sequence of trades.
Most traders never see the losing sequences until it's too late.
10,000 simulated futures
Available in the full app
One result shows possibility. Thousands show reality.
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This survival test is a simplified model. RangeSight runs 10,000 simulations with real market volatility to reveal where your strategy actually breaks.
One bad strategy can cost thousands. RangeSight is a one-time $29.99 to prevent it.
A risk of ruin calculator estimates the probability that a trader will lose enough capital to stop trading. It uses inputs like win rate, risk per trade, and risk-reward ratio to run Monte Carlo simulations and determine survival probability.
Enter your win rate, risk per trade, average risk-reward ratio, and number of trades. The calculator runs thousands of simulations to show your probability of ruin and survival rate.
Most professional traders aim for a risk of ruin below 5%. Above 10% is considered dangerous, and above 25% suggests the position sizing is too aggressive for the strategy's edge.
Both matter equally. A 40% win rate with a 1:3 risk-reward can be more survivable than a 60% win rate with 1:0.5 risk-reward. The combination of both, along with risk per trade, determines your actual probability of ruin.