Alpha Capital Group Risk of Ruin Calculator
10/5 evaluation survival math. Calculate the survival odds of your strategy against Alpha Capital Group's 10% drawdown rule before paying the evaluation fee.
Pass your evaluation. Protect your funded account.
Free classic calculator below. For 10,000-path Quick Test against Alpha Capital Group's exact drawdown rule, with the recommended risk level to maximize pass probability, open the app.
Public rules only. Educational, not affiliated with any prop firm. Rules change: verify with your firm before trading.
Your strategy vs Alpha Capital Group's rules
Alpha Capital Group offers 4 sizes from $10,000 to $200,000
Survival grade
A
Ruin probability
0.6%
Losers to bust
10(5 to hit daily)
Your strategy has a positive edge of 25.0% per trade. Survival odds look strong, but Monte Carlo simulation against real market data will give you a more realistic picture.
About Alpha Capital Group's rules
Alpha Capital Group (ACG) is a UK-based prop firm offering 1-Step and 2-Step evaluations with standard 10% maximum drawdown and 5% daily loss limits.
Key risk rule
Standard 10/5 rules. 1-Step variant raises the profit target, compressing the time available to hit it without breaching drawdown.
| Account | Size | Max DD | Daily | Profit Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10K ACG | $10,000 | 10% | 5% | 8% |
| $50K ACG | $50,000 | 10% | 5% | 8% |
| $100K ACG | $100,000 | 10% | 5% | 8% |
| $200K ACG | $200,000 | 10% | 5% | 8% |
Rules summarized from publicly published information as of 2026-04-17. Always verify current terms directly with Alpha Capital Group.
Why most Alpha Capital Group traders fail
The 10% drawdown ceiling looks generous in isolation. The math says otherwise. At 2% risk per trade, you bust after just 5 consecutive losers. With a 50% win rate, that sequence happens roughly once every 32 trades — and most evaluations require enough activity that you'll see it.
Alpha Capital Group's static drawdown is more forgiving than trailing rules, but the daily loss limit is the silent killer. Most evaluation failures happen on a single bad day, not from accumulated drawdown.
The fix is structural, not tactical. Reducing risk per trade from 2% to 1% cuts your expected ruin probability by roughly 75%. Reducing it to 0.5% effectively eliminates rule-based failure for most positive-edge strategies.
Run real Monte Carlo simulation
This calculator uses the classical risk of ruin formula. For 10,000-path Monte Carlo Quick Test against real market volatility, with Alpha Capital Group's drawdown rule applied and the recommended risk level to maximize pass probability, use the iOS app.