Topstep Risk of Ruin Calculator
Math the trailing drawdown. Calculate the survival odds of your strategy against Topstep's 4% drawdown rule before paying the evaluation fee.
Pass your evaluation. Protect your funded account.
Free classic calculator below. For 10,000-path Quick Test against Topstep's exact drawdown rule, with the recommended risk level to maximize pass probability, open the app.
Public rules only. Educational, not affiliated with any prop firm. Rules change: verify with your firm before trading.
Your strategy vs Topstep's rules
Topstep offers 3 sizes from $50,000 to $150,000
Survival grade
F
Ruin probability
99%
Losers to bust
4(2 to hit daily)
Your strategy has a positive edge of 25.0% per trade. Edge is positive, but ruin probability is high. Reducing risk per trade is the fastest fix.
About Topstep's rules
Topstep is a Chicago-based futures prop firm that uses a Trading Combine evaluation. The defining feature is a trailing maximum loss limit that locks in unrealized profits, dramatically changing the risk math compared to static-drawdown firms.
Key risk rule
End-of-day trailing maximum loss locks in profits, meaning a winning day permanently raises your floor. This penalizes volatile equity curves.
| Account | Size | Max DD | Daily | Profit Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $50K Combine | $50,000 | 4% | 2% | 6% |
| $100K Combine | $100,000 | 3% | 2% | 6% |
| $150K Combine | $150,000 | 3% | 2% | 6% |
Rules summarized from publicly published information as of 2026-04-17. Always verify current terms directly with Topstep.
Why most Topstep traders fail
The 4% drawdown ceiling looks generous in isolation. The math says otherwise. At 2% risk per trade, you bust after just 2 consecutive losers. With a 50% win rate, that sequence happens roughly once every 4 trades — and most evaluations require enough activity that you'll see it.
Topstep's trailing drawdown makes it worse. Every winning streak permanently raises your floor, so a strategy that nets +5% across volatile swings can fail before reaching the profit target.
The fix is structural, not tactical. Reducing risk per trade from 2% to 1% cuts your expected ruin probability by roughly 75%. Reducing it to 0.5% effectively eliminates rule-based failure for most positive-edge strategies.
Run real Monte Carlo simulation
This calculator uses the classical risk of ruin formula. For 10,000-path Monte Carlo Quick Test against real market volatility, with Topstep's drawdown rule applied and the recommended risk level to maximize pass probability, use the iOS app.